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Key node coming bond yield or "next city" Sina fund exposure platform: letter Phi lag false propaganda, performance is lower than the same kind of product for a long time, buy fund by pit how to do? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! Since October 1st, the RMB will be formally incorporated into SDR. IMF in September 30th last year and into the decision based on a new basket of currencies and currency basket weights published from July 1st to September 30th three months between the exchange rate level, the new currency amount is calculated for each SDR currency basket, and the new amount of money in the next SDR review before 2021 remain unchanged, basket the currency weight with each currency rates. Previously, the share of the basket currency weighted by IMF was 10.92%, only 41.73% of the US dollar and 30.93% of the euro, which was higher than 8.33% of the yen and 8.09% of the pound. SDR is included in the RMB RMB internationalization is an important step on the road, according to the bank for International Settlements (BIS) released in September 1, 2016 three annual global foreign exchange market report, 2016 April, the global foreign exchange market daily trading volume of $5 trillion and 90 billion, down 5% compared to April 2013. Among them, the renminbi foreign exchange trading volume of $202 billion 20 million, an increase of 69% compared to 2013; the global proportion rose to 4%, the market share nearly doubled, currency ranking from ninth to eighth, however, the data also show that trading of RMB in the global foreign exchange market, the proportion is far lower than the dollar, euro, pound, yen, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollar seven reserve currency trading volume. The gap between the share of RMB in SDR and the share in the foreign exchange market indicates that IMF approval and market recognition are not mentioned in the same breath. It is necessary to do a lot of institutional construction for RMB to achieve internationalization. First, after the RMB is included in the SDR, the basket currency weights follow the interest rate fluctuations, and IMF uses the 3 month term treasury bond yield as the benchmark. Although the Ministry of finance began issuing a 3 month discount treasury bond from 2015 October, it has only one hundred billion yuan as of now, and the 3 month term short term treasury bond market development is insufficient. In order to avoid the risk of the volatility of the benchmark interest rate after SDR, it is important and fundamental to continue to improve the yield curve of treasury bonds and deepen the marketization of interest rates. With the further improvement of the yield curve of treasury bonds, the depth and breadth of the bond market will be expanded. Secondly, the RMB into the SDR or the central bank monetary policy operation has an important impact. According to the paradox of three yuan, a country cannot simultaneously realize capital account opening free capital mobility and independence of monetary policy and exchange rate stability, and recently some scholars and officials of the central bank in the world, due to the effectiveness of capital control has decreased significantly, if the exchange rate is not flexible enough space, monetary policy is difficult to completely separate. The formation of the "paradox of two yuan". Whether it is "three yuan paradox" or "two element paradox" frame theory

关键节点来临 债券收益率或“再下一城” 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!   10月1日起,人民币将被正式纳入SDR。IMF将于9月30日基于去年与纳入人民币决定一道公布的新篮子货币权重以及篮子货币7月1日至9月30日三个月间的汇率水平,计算SDR货币篮子中每个货币的新货币量,且这组新货币量将在2021年的下一次SDR审查前保持不变,篮子货币权重则将随各货币利率浮动。此前IMF公布的篮子货币权重中人民币所占份额为10.92%,仅次于美元的41.73%、欧元的30.93%,高于日元的8.33%和英镑的8.09%。人民币纳入SDR是人民币国际化道路上的重要一步,根据国际清算银行(BIS)2016年9月1日发布的三年一度的全球外汇市场调查报告,2016年4月份全球外汇市场日均交易量为5.09万亿美元,较2013年4月份下降5.0%。   其中,人民币外汇交易量为2020.2亿美元,较2013年增长69%;全球占比升至4.0%,市场份额几乎翻了一番,货币排名从第九位升至第八位,然而数据也显示,人民币在全球外汇市场中的交易占比远低于美元、欧元、英镑、日元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳元等七种储备货币交易量。人民币在SDR中所占份额与在外汇市场交易份额之间的差距表明IMF认可和市场认可并不可同日而语,人民币真正实现国际化尚需做很多制度性建设工作。   首先,人民币纳入SDR后一篮子货币权重跟随各货币利率浮动,IMF采用了3个月期限的短期国债收益率作为基准。虽然财政部从2015年10月份开始每周发行一期3个月期限贴现式国债,但是截至目前也仅有千亿元规模,3个月期限短期国债收益率市场化发育程度不足。为了避免纳入SDR后权重基准利率大幅波动的风险,继续完善国债收益率曲线,深化利率市场化将是重要的最基础的制度性建设。随着国债收益率曲线的进一步完善,债券市场深度和广度又将得到拓展。   其次,人民币纳入SDR后或对央行货币政策操作方式产生重要影响。根据“三元悖论”,一个国家不可能同时实现资本账户开放 资本自由流动、货币政策独立性和汇率稳定,而最近一些学者和央行官员提出,由于当今世界资本管制有效性已经显著下降,如果汇率没有足够的弹性空间,货币政策也难以完全独立,由此形成了“二元悖论”。无论是“三元悖论”还是“二元悖论”框架,实际情形是由于资本流动规模扩大和频率增快,中国同时保持货币政策独立性和汇率稳定的难度已然增大。   综合过去发生的情形,2014年下半年至2015年上半年,央行频繁降息降准除了扶持经济增长的政策目标之外,在外汇占款大幅减少的压力下通过降准弥补资本外流对国内流动性的负面冲击恐怕是相当重要的一个原因,因此该阶段形成了“稳定汇率+资本自由流动”的政策组合;而在2015年下半年,尤其是在“8・11”汇率改革之后,央行果断放弃了稳定汇率的政策目标,转而追求“货币政策独立性+资本自由流动”政策组合,可在人民币贬值压力抬升的时期,央行又不得不在一定程度上既放弃货币政策独立性也放弃一部分资本自由流动,因此出现了2016年2月和2016年9月离岸人民币汇率市场干预和流动性内外联动收紧。   鉴于人民币纳入SDR后,资本账户完全开放和资本自由流动的大趋势已经不可逆转,中国央行在“三元悖论”的框架下政策抉择的矛盾会愈发凸显,并且人民币纳入SDR无形中拆掉了“不可能三角”的一条边――资本自由流动是不可违逆的,由此,中国央行就面临在“货币政策独立性”和“汇率稳定”间二者择一的艰难选择:如果央行选择了“货币政策独立性”,也就意味着要放弃人民币汇率稳定的政策目标,则纳入SDR并不会意味着人民币汇率持续稳定,相反,纳入SDR后人民币汇率波动幅度将加大,在资本与金融账户逆差和汇率自发调整之下,人民币的贬值将自发实现,货币政策独立性可单一地针对国内流动性和通胀等政策目标,人民币充分贬值后的结果将是增强国内资产的投资吸引力从而遏制资本外流的规模和速度,此时央行也就逐步实现了政策“均衡”;如果央行选择了“汇率稳定”,也就意味着2016年2月和9月的情形将反复上演,央行干预汇率市场的结果一方面进一步抬升人民币贬值的预期,另一方面则削弱了央行外汇储备,最终央行将不得不放弃稳定汇率的意图,而且若央行频繁稳定汇率,则在岸与离岸市场流动性将持续收缩,我们已经谈到,具有足够深度的离岸人民币汇率市场是人民币真正成为国际储备货币的关键,因此维持汇率稳定将导致人民币国际化进程受挫。   我们认为央行选择“货币政策独立性”、放弃“稳定汇率”的概率较大。因为对于中国这样一个正在快速发展的大经济体而言,放弃货币政策独立性并非明智之举。回顾2016年8月末至9月份在岸与离岸流动性持续趋紧的状态和央行公开市场操作的审慎,在10月1日人民币纳入SDR的关键节点之后,央行货币政策或将出现调整。在国庆长假后巨额公开市场操作到期回笼的压力下,前期为了稳定人民币汇率预期而收紧流动性的举措可持续性不高,货币政策或将侧重于国内通胀预期和利率稳定,由此一来,9月份持续较长时间的资金利率向上和债券收益率向下之间的背离将会终结,随着资金利率在“利率走廊”调控下回归常态化,债券收益率缓慢下行的阻碍也将被逐步消解,我们或许可以在四季度看到2016年最后一轮债券收益率下行的图景。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: